Rally Caps Offseason Outlook - Chicago Cubs

Pos	Player	Salary			Total
C	Welington Castillo	$500,000		2008	$118,345,833
1B	Anthony Rizzo	$500,000		2009	$134,809,000
2B	Darwin Barney	$600,000		2010	$144,359,000
3B	Ian Stewart	$2,300,000		2011	$134,004,000
SS	Starlin Castro	$5,857,000		2012	$109,316,000
LF	Alfonso Soriano	$19,000,000		Average	$128,166,767
CF	Brett Jackson	$500,000		2013	$76,607,000
RF	David DeJesus	$4,250,000		Budget	$51,559,767
C	Dioner Navarro	$1,750,000
IF	Steve Clevenger	$500,000
OF	Tony Campana	$500,000
OF	Dave Sappelt	$500,000
Util	Luis Valbuena	$900,000
SP	Matt Garza	$10,000,000
SP	Jeff Samardzija	$2,900,000
SP	Travis Wood	$500,000
SP	Scott Feldman	$6,000,000
SP	Scott Baker	$5,500,000
CP	Carlos Marmol	$9,800,000
SU	Shawn Camp	$1,350,000
SU	James Russell	$900,000
MRP	Michael Bowden	$500,000
MRP	Jeffrey Beliveau	$500,000
MRP	Rafael Dolis	$500,000
LRP	Jaye Chapman	$500,000

The Cubs made a big splash at the beginning of 2012 by trading for former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein and bringing in former Padres GM Jed Hoyer. Between the two, there is a lot of baseball knowledge and a lot of success at building home-grown players. The Cubs having a 2012 payroll that exceeded $100 million is a testament to how bad the ownership and management was before the trio of Ricketts, Epstein, and Hoyer came to town was. The Cubs are coming off of three straight losing season, including a 101 loss campaign in 2012. They also have the small ordeal of apparently going quite a while since their last World Series. As such, this rebuilding team has holes to fill, but the question is how much does the team have to spend?

With new ownership, it is hard to tell if the Cubs still $110 million to work with or if the Ricketts group is more interested in shedding payroll a bit. If $110 is the magic number, then the Cubs could have approximately $30 million to use this offseason.

The Cubs already brought in Dioner Navarro to serve as a backup to Welington Castillo. Castillo looked usable last season and the fact that the Cubs spent small money on Navarro could be a sign of trust in Castillo. The rest of the infield is set as youngsters Anthony Rizzo, Darwin Barney, and Starlin Castro join veteran Ian Stewart in a very solid defensive infield. Rizzo is a well-rounded hitter, Castro gets on base and has a load of speed, and Stewart has tremendous power potential. The Cubs are well-suited to stick with this quartet, especially since they cost the team less than $10 million combined.

In the outfield, Alfonso Soriano and David DeJesus are locks. Soriano is one of the last two really bad contracts doled out by old management, but he was productive in 2012, so the Cubs may be interested in holding on to him for his offense and greatly improving defense. Soriano was arguably the best defensive left fielder in the National League last season. If the team does decide to move him, though, they will probably have to eat a large portion of his contract. With no standout prospects at left field, it makes more sense to pay him to play for the Cubs instead of paying him to play for another team. The big question in the outfield is Brett Jackson. Jackson has struggled with strikeouts at every level, but has a good power bat and can draw a walk. His low average/solid power combination with the ability to amass steals makes him comparable to Chris Young. Because the Cubs don't have much better options at outfield until Jorge Soler is ready, it makes a lot of sense to let Jackson work on his control against major league pitching.

With the exception of Dioner Navarro, the Cubs have a bench that is completely made up of league-minimum players. If they have money to spend, they could afford to bring in some low risk guys on smaller contracts to not only provide more depth, but to challenge their current crop of role players for their bench spots. Currently, the Cubs don't have any positional battles, which can lead to stagnant play.

The Cubs have already brought in Scott Feldman and Scott Baker as reclamation projects for the rotation. I think they spent a little too much money for guys that don't have a tremendous amount of upside aside from moving from the AL to the NL. At any rate, the two moves did answer their largest question - the rotation. I think they should bring in a few more guys on minor league contracts to protect themselves from slumping pitchers. Matt Garza is a strong option with ace potential, but the other four members of the Cubs Opening Day rotation are anything but locks to have productive seasons.

Due to being made up of primarily young hurlers, the Cubs bullpen is incredibly hit or miss. They almost swung a deal to move Carlos Marmol to the Angels for Dan Haren, but backed out when they saw Haren's physical. The move shows the Cubs lack of trust in their so-called closer and I don't think that was the last phone call they made about the wild hurler. If the team does move Marmol, they could be on the market for a closer, since they don't have any good internal options. The bullpen is actually the area that is most in need of retooling for team, as the team had the league's worst pen last year and didn't have any standout performers. Moving Marmol for a bench bat and entering the market for some fresh blood could do this team a lot of good. Ultimately, I think the Cubs fans are in for another disappointing season, but with solid management and a step up in play from their young core, the Cubs could conceivably be a surprise team in 2013.

 

American League
East	Central	West
Baltimore Orioles	Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros
Boston Red Sox	Cleveland Indians	Los Angeles Angels
New York Yankees	Detroit Tigers	Oakland Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays	Minnesota Twins	Texas Rangers
National League
East	Central	West
Atlanta Braves	Chicago Cubs	Arizona Diamondbacks
Miami Marlins	Cincinnati Reds	Colorado Rockies
New York Mets	Milwaukee Brewers	Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies	Pittsburgh Pirates	San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals	St Louis Cardinals	San Francisco Giants

Hall of Fame Candidates - Catchers

It's almost time for the Hall of Fame voting, which means it's time to look back on baseball's past and weed out who the very best in history are. Out of the possible candidates, eligible voters are allowed to put ten names on their ballot. Players who appear on 75% of the ballot make it in. I will follow this formula and assemble a ballot of my own. I am going to look at the players by position and determine if there are even ten names worthy of consideration.

Today we will start with the two eligible catchers. Before I post tables, I should explain to non-stat minded readers some of the stats. All of these stats were taken from Baseball Reference. Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor assesses how likely a player is to be voted into the Hall of Fame based on statistical benchmarks. Bill James Hall of Fame Standards test is a point system that gives players extra points for how much they exceed certain statistical values. Jay Jaffe's WAR Score system averages a player's career WAR with the average WAR of his best seven seasons and then compares this number to other players in his position. This allows us to see how much better or worse he is than the average player at his position. Lastly, WAR, or Wins Above Replacement assesses how many wins a particular player added to his team over what a replacement-level player would have netted for the team. Now then, on with the candidates.

Player	YoB	HOFm	HOFs	Yrs	WAR	WAR7	JAWS	Jpos	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
Mike Piazza	1st	207	62	16	56.1	40.7	48.4	41	1912	6911	1048	2127	427	1335	17	759	0.308	0.377	0.545	0.922	143
Sandy Alomar	1st	48	24	20	11.6	11.8	11.7	41	1377	4530	520	1236	112	588	25	212	0.273	0.309	0.406	0.716	86

Mike Piazza

Mike Piazza jumped right into a Hall of Fame calibre career with a 1993 season that earned him the Rookie of the Year award. Piazza hit for a .932 OPS and blasted 35 home runs in his first season and it was uphill from there. He had arguably his best season in 1997 when he hit 40 home runs, had a 1.070 OPS, and finished second in MVP voting. Piazza was never voted in as the Most Valuable Player, but he had four top five finishes in voting and three more season in the top ten. He was named to twelve All Star teams in sixteen seasons. In ten of his appearances, he was voted in as the starter. This popularity with the fans ties him with Johnny Bench for third place all-time in starts at the catcher position behind Ivan Rodriguez and Yogi Berra. Piazza won ten Silver Sluggers, which is most all-time at the catcher position. His ten awards were all in a row, as he took the award every season from 1993-2002. The major knock against Piazza is his defense. He routinely led the league in stolen bases allowed and passed balls.

As far as career numbers, Piazza is first all-time in OPS, tenth in batting average, and fourth in weighted OBA. In terms of rate stats, he is tops in home runs, eleventh in runs, and fourth in RBIs. Quite frankly, Mike Piazza is in the discussion as one of the best offensive catchers of all-time. It may take a few years due to steroid talk, but if Piazza doesn't eventually make it in, then there is no reason for a Hall of Fame to exist.

Sandy Alomar

Alomar's resume isn't as dazzling as Piazza's. He also won the Rookie of the Year award, taking the 1990 prize, but the comparisons end there. He was named to six All Star games, including three as the starting catcher. He never won the Silver Slugger, but did take home the 1990 Gold Glove. From 1994-1997, he had a four year stretch of showing improved power hitting, but it trailed off as his career started to fade in 1998. Alomar hung around until 2007 thanks to his average defensive ability. He played four more seasons than Piazza, but appered in almost 600 less games thanks to injuries or being relegated to backup status.

Both of these cases are easy decisions, as Piazza is a slam dunk, while Alomar is an astounding no. The only thing holding Piazza back is his admission of using androstenedione before it was banned. Personally, you can chalk me up as not caring about PEDs. In my opinion, the rampant use of steroids in the late 80s to now represents an era of baseball much like the deadball era. If a player takes a substance that is banned now, I think he should be suspended, but if players took steroids before they were banned by baseball, then it can't really be held against them for trying to gain a competitive edge. At the end of the day, steroids don't magically make you a better hitter, so a player's ability and numbers can't be ignored just because they used PEDs.

My ballot:
1) Mike Piazza
2)
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Rally Caps Offseason Outlook - Boston Red Sox

Pos	Player	Salary			Total
C	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	$3,900,000		2008	$133,390,035
1B	Jerry Sands	$500,000		2009	$121,745,999
2B	Dustin Pedroia	$10,250,000		2010	$168,109,833
3B	Will Middlebrooks	$500,000		2011	$163,822,475
SS	Jose Iglesias	$2,062,500		2012	$175,249,119
LF	Jonny Gomes	$5,000,000		Average	$152,463,492
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	$8,100,000		2013	$99,687,500
RF	Ryan Sweeney	$1,800,000		Budget	$52,775,992
DH	David Ortiz	$14,500,000
C	David Ross	$3,100,000
IF	Pedro Ciriaco	$500,000
OF	Ryan Kalish	$500,000
Util	Daniel Nava	$500,000
SP	Jon Lester	$11,625,000
SP	Clay Buchholz	$5,750,000
SP	Felix Doubront	$500,000
SP	John Lackey	$15,950,000
SP	Franklin Morales	$1,400,000
CP	Andrew Bailey	$3,900,000
SU	Alfredo Aceves	$2,600,000
SU	Daniel Bard	$1,600,000
MRP	Mark Melancon	$550,000
MRP	Craig Breslow	$2,400,000
MRP	Andrew Miller	$1,400,000
LRP	Scott Atchison	$800,000

The Red Sox had a very disappointing 2012, as their offseason signing of Bobby Valentine to serve as a drill sergeant after ChickenAndBeerGate did not exactly pan out. Bobby V upset the fans, players, and organization with his inability to filter his public comments about the team. As such, he was let go and the Red Sox finally got their main managerial target, John Farrell, in a trade with Toronto. Due to the disappointment of 2012, the bulk of the team was traded mid-season. The team enters 2013 with anywhere from 50 to 70 million dollars to spend depending on what management views as the payroll ceiling. It is definitely a luxury to go into an offseason with a budget the size of most teams payrolls, but the Red Sox also have a lot of holes to fill with that money.

The most glaring hole is at first base. Jerry Sands isn't a bad player, but doesn't have much value as an everyday starter at first. He is better suited as an option off the bench given his ability to play first base and the corner outfield positions. The Red Sox have been talking to Mike Napoli, which would be a good pickup for them given his power numbers. If Napoli is brought in, though, he brings injury risk and is prone to slumps. The first base market is very weak this year, with only Kevin Youkilis and Adam LaRoche presenting even passable options, so, if they don't go with Napoli, the trade market could be the way to go. After bringing in David Ross from Atlanta, the Sox have a catching surplus with Ross, Jarrod Saltamacchia, and Ryan Lavarnaway already in the fold and prospect Blake Swihart on his way. It makes a lot of sense to move Saltamacchia to a team in need of catching. More on that in a moment.

The team liked what they saw out of Will Middlebrooks last season and obviously have second base locked up with Dustin Pedroia, but shortstop could be an area of need. Jose Iglesias is a flashy fielder, but hasn't shown the ability to hit at any level. The Red Sox fans aren't big on run prevention, so management may want to look into offensive options for the position. Top prospect Xander Bogaerts is very intriguing, but will only be 20 years old entering 2013. It makes a lot of sense for the team to look into options like Stephen Drew or bringing back Marco Scutaro for the position, but could also look into hooking up with Cleveland for Asdrubal Cabrera.

The Red Sox just signed Jonny Gomes, but between him, Ryan Sweeney, Daniel Nava, and Ryan Kalish, the team has four guys that make solid fourth outfielders, but aren't the best starting options. Some have been talking about trading Jacoby Ellsbury, but I think it makes more sense to hold onto Ellsbury and try to find options to put in place around him. The team is the front-runner to bring back Cody Ross, but he is another player who is better in a part-time role. Between the five part time players, they could have a good season, but the Red Sox could also build a trade for a player like Shin-Soo Choo or Justin Upton.

Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Felix Doubront make a formidable starting three, but John Lackey and Franklin Morales are big mysteries in the rotation. With Morales arguably better suited for a bullpen role, it makes sense to bring in at least one surefire starting pitcher and possibly one or two low-risk minor league signing for depth. The team could look at free agents like Dan Haren, Ryan Dempster, Anibal Sanchez, or Ryan Dempster to fill their fifth starter slot and reclamation projects like Dallas Braden, Kevin Correia, or Chris Young could be solid depth moves.

If all the parts can stay healthy, the Red Sox have a formidable bullpen, with Andrew Bailey, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard, and Mark Melancon all possessing closer experience. They could look at a returning player like Joakim Soria as a low risk, high reward signing, but if they make the depth moves listed above in the rotation, they would have Franklin Morales back in the bullpen, which would strengthen the unit.

The Red Sox have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they have the resources to fill their holes and build a team to compete with the incredibly strong American League East.

Rally Caps Offseason Outlook - Baltimore Orioles

Pos	Player	Salary			Total
C	Matt Wieters	$4,600,000		2008	$67,196,246
1B	Mark Reynolds	$8,900,000		2009	$67,101,666
2B	Brian Roberts	$10,000,000		2010	$73,812,500
3B	Manny Machado	$500,000		2011	$86,942,583
SS	J.J. Hardy	$7,416,667		2012	$84,102,333
LF	Nolan Reimold	$1,000,000		Average	$75,831,066
CF	Adam Jones	$8,833,333		2013	$88,005,333
RF	Nick Markakis	$15,350,000		Budget	-$12,174,267
DH	Chris Davis	$3,300,000
C	Taylor Teagarden	$800,000
IF	Wilson Betemit	$1,750,000
OF	Ryan Flaherty	$500,000
Util	Alexi Casilla	$500,000
SP	Jason Hammel	$6,500,000
SP	Wei-Yin Chen	$3,655,333
SP	Chris Tillman	$500,000
SP	Miguel Gonzalez	$500,000
SP	Zach Britton	$500,000
CP	Jim Johnson	$6,900,000
SU	Pedro Strop	$500,000
SU	Darren O'Day	$2,200,000
MRP	Troy Patton	$800,000
MRP	Luis Ayala	$1,000,000
MRP	Brian Matusz	$1,000,000
LRP	Steve Johnson	$500,000

The Orioles were a surprise last year as they emerged as a force in the AL East. They had been quietly stock-piling cost-controlled players and making the occasional splash in free agency. With a core built around Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Brian Roberts, and Nick Markakis, the Os have done of lot of work internally. They enter 2013 with a team that largely remains intact and untouched from the 2012 playoff campaign. With a budget that is currently $12 million over their five year average and $1 million over their five year high, it appears that free agency will not be the way the Orioles fill holes.

Thankfully, the Orioles don't have a lot of holes to fill. Top to bottom, their lineup is filled with very solid hitters. The big difference over last year will be the fact that young shortstop-turned-third baseman Manny Machado will get a full season under his belt. The Os top prospect has a good amount of pop in his bat, solid contact numbers, and, as we saw in 2012, defense that can play well at the hot corner. The rumor mill is saying that they are looking to upgrade at first base, left field, and DH through trades, but Reynolds, Davis, and Reimold are solid options, if not a little superfluous due to all three being all-power and high strikeout guys.

The Orioles have a passable rotation, but they are interested in trying to bring Joe Saunders back, which would be a good move for a team with a good defensive infield. The Os may have more money to spend thanks to the playoff push. They are set in the bullpen with breakthrough closer Jim Johnson returning to shut the door down and role players Pedro Strop and Darren O'Day coming back.

Personally, I don't think there are any free agents that are in the Orioles price range that represent an improvement over what they already have on the roster. If they do bring Joe Saunders in, they could trade one of their younger starters for an improvement in the outfield or at first base. If they decide to stand pat, though, the team's young core can compete with the Yankees and the new look Blue Jays in the AL East.