Thursday, October 25, 2012

Manager of the Year Predictions

The idea behind the Manager of the Year award shifts greatly depending on the stories of each particular season. Sometimes, the award goes to a division winner. Other times, it can go to a team that may not have won, but showed a drastic improvement over the last season. I have taken both of these ideas and used a nerdy formula to determine the Manager of the Year in each league.

The Math

My formula isn't really very scientific at all. The team's wins are added to wins added over last season. Losses are subtracted. Twenty points are awarded for a division crown and ten for a wild card. Because a team's payroll can have a major affect on a manager's available weapons, I factored that in as well. I took a team's total payroll and divided by its wins to determine how much each team spent on a victory. The average amount spent on a victory was $1,250,735. I divided the average by the actual amount spent on a victory to get a normalized number. These numbers were all added to create a total.

American League
 
Manager Team 2012W 2012L 2011W DivW WCWin Payroll Cost/Win WinNorm Total
Bob Melvin Oakland 94 68 74 1
52873000 562479 2.224 88.24
Buck Showalter Baltimore 93 69 69
1 84102333 904326 1.383 71.83
Joe Girardi New York 95 67 97 1
209792900 2208346 0.566 51.66
Ron Washington Texas 93 69 96
1 120836000 1299312 0.963 40.63
Jim Leyland Detroit 88 74 95 1
133475000 1516761 0.825 35.25
Joe Maddon Tampa 90 72 91

63627200 706969 1.769 34.69
Mike Scioscia Los Angeles 89 73 86

151381000 1700910 0.735 26.35
Robin Ventura Chicago 85 77 79

97669500 1149053 1.088 24.88
Eric Wedge Seattle 75 87 67

84928100 1132375 1.105 7.05
Ned Yost Kansas City 72 90 71

64001725 888913 1.407 -2.93
John Farrell Toronto 73 89 81

83739200 1147112 1.090 -13.10
Ron Gardenhire Minnesota 66 96 63

100435000 1521742 0.822 -18.78
Manny Acta Cleveland 68 94 80

65430300 962210 1.300 -25.00
Bobby Valentine Boston 69 93 90

175249119 2539842 0.492 -40.08

It's hard to argue with a formula that determines that Bobby Valentine was the league's worst manager.

Melvin and Showalter are the clear front-runners in the American League. Showalter took a last place team and completely flipped their record from 69-93 to 93-69 this season. They came very close to upsetting the Yankees for the division title and almost knocked them out of the playoffs. In a division where the Blue Jays and Rays have seen recent surges, it will be interesting if the Orioles can have a repeat season or if this was a fluke.

The winner of Manager of the Year, though, has to be Bob Melvin. Melvin's Athletics were in the same division as the two-time defending American League Champion Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Both team spent a lot of money in the offseason and had much better rosters than Oakland on paper. Melvin got a lot of results from his young team that is very sustainable due to the bulk of the production coming from a young and talented pitching staff.

Prediction: Bob Melvin

National League

Manager Team 2012W 2012L 2011W DivW WCWin Payroll Cost/Win WinNorm Total
Davey Johnson Washington 98 64 80 1
92534929 944234 1.325 85.25
Dusty Baker Cincinnati 97 65 79 1
87826167 905424 1.381 83.81
Bruce Bochy San Francisco 94 68 86 1
131355298 1397397 0.895 62.95
Fredi Gonzalez Atlanta 94 68 89
1 93529667 994996 1.257 53.57
Mike Matheny St Louis 88 74 90
1 111858500 1271119 0.984 31.84
Don Mattingly Los Angeles 86 76 82

105419833 1225812 1.020 24.20
Clint Hurdle Pittsburgh 79 83 72

51932333 657371 1.903 22.03
Bud Black San Diego 76 86 71

55621900 731867 1.709 12.09
Ron Roenicke Milwaukee 83 79 96

98150833 1182540 1.058 1.58
Kirk Gibson Arizona 81 81 94

75417833 931084 1.343 0.43
Terry Collins New York 74 88 77

94508822 1277146 0.979 -7.21
Charlie Manuel Philadelphia 81 81 102

172093902 2124616 0.589 -15.11
Ozzie Guillen Miami 69 93 72

101628000 1472870 0.849 -18.51
Jim Tracy Colorado 64 98 73

81135571 1267743 0.987 -33.13
Brad Mills Houston 55 107 56

60799000 1105436 1.131 -41.69
Dale Sveum Chicago 61 101 71

109316000 1792066 0.698 -43.02

 The National League had a clear winner in Davey Johnson. The Nationals have been a sleeper pick for a few seasons now, but their prospects are all finally at peak age. They are fueled by a fantastic young pitching staff and have one of the deepest offenses in the league. Not only did Johnson add eighteen wins over last season and lead his team to the playoffs, but these results should be sustainable thanks to the core of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, and Michael Morse all being locked up for a few more years.

Prediction: Davey Johnson

 

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