Rookie of the Year Predictions

This season we saw a handful of stand-out candidates for the annual Rookie of the Year award, but more importantly for MLB teams there were a lot of young guys that emerged as role players. Only one or two true stars debut each season, but many more make their first of many appearances as starters or bench players. The award by no means guarantees a bright career (just ask Chris Coghlan, Geovany Soto, or Bobby Crosby) nor does losing out erase your chances at stardom (the above-mentioned players beat out Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, and Zack Greinke, respectively). Let's take a look at the field for the awards this season.

American League

American League Hitters
Name	Team	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Mike Trout	Angels	139	639	182	30	129	83	49	0.326	0.963	0.409	10
Yoenis Cespedes	Athletics	129	540	142	23	70	82	16	0.292	0.861	0.368	3.1
American League Pitchers
Name	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Yu Darvish	Rangers	16	9	0	29	29	191.1	10.4	4.19	3.9	3.29	5.1
Jarrod Parker	Athletics	13	8	0	29	29	181.1	6.95	3.13	3.47	3.43	3.7
Tommy Milone	Athletics	13	10	0	31	31	190	6.49	1.71	3.74	3.93	2.7
Ryan Cook	Athletics	6	2	14	71	0	73.1	9.82	3.31	2.09	2.89	1.6
Tom Wilhelmsen	Mariners	4	3	29	73	0	79.1	9.87	3.29	2.5	2.89	1.5

 The American League side of the ballot isn't really up for discussion. Mike Trout's rookie campaign was historic. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, it is the greatest rookie season since Joe Jackson's first full season in 1911. Trout was called up twenty games into the season and led a star-studded Angels team to an 89-73 record, greatly outplaying teammates who made far more money than he did. The Angels had a .583 winning percentage with Mike Trout in the game and a .348 winning percentage without. If Mike Trout had been on the opening day lineup and not missed the first twenty games, the Angels would have potentially won 94 games and made the playoffs.

Prediction: Mike Trout

National League
 

National League Hitters
Name	Team	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Bryce Harper	Nationals	139	597	144	22	98	59	18	0.270	0.817	0.352	4.9
Norichika Aoki	Brewers	151	588	150	10	81	50	30	0.288	0.788	0.344	2.9
Todd Frazier	Reds	128	465	115	19	55	67	3	0.273	0.829	0.354	2.8
Zack Cozart	Reds	138	600	138	15	72	35	4	0.246	0.687	0.298	2.7
Yonder Alonso	Padres	155	619	150	9	47	62	3	0.273	0.741	0.323	2
Anthony Rizzo	Cubs	87	368	96	15	44	48	3	0.285	0.805	0.349	1.8
Wilin Rosario	Rockies	117	426	107	28	67	71	4	0.270	0.842	0.356	1.8
National League Pitchers
Name	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	16	11	0	32	29	194.2	6.66	1.71	3.33	3.15	4.8
Mike Fiers	Brewers	9	10	0	23	22	127.2	9.52	2.54	3.74	3.09	3
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	18	7	0	35	29	176	9.2	3.27	3.78	3.49	2.9

 The National League is a little bit trickier as there isn't a slam dunk pick like Trout. The easy pick is breakout star Bryce Harper, but looking at his stats next to Wilin Rosario's really paints a picture. The two players peripheral stats are just about even, with Rosario actually leading the way in OPS and wOBA. The difference in counting stats is worth looking at, though, as Rosario's stats are equal or greater than Harper's despite having 171 less plate appearances. Without Harper's defensive abilities in center field, nothing distinguishes the two. This isn't an argument for Wilin Rosario as the winner, but it takes a bit of the shine off of Harper.

My choice for the award would be Diamondbacks hurler Wade Miley. He had a great season starting for the Snakes thanks to his control and ground ball pitching. Pitchers of his repertoire are hard to project over a career, so I can't say with certainty whether he will go on to have a stellar resume or if he will be the next Jason Jennings, but in 2012 he was the best.

Prediction: Wade Miley