Rookie of the Year Predictions

This season we saw a handful of stand-out candidates for the annual Rookie of the Year award, but more importantly for MLB teams there were a lot of young guys that emerged as role players. Only one or two true stars debut each season, but many more make their first of many appearances as starters or bench players. The award by no means guarantees a bright career (just ask Chris Coghlan, Geovany Soto, or Bobby Crosby) nor does losing out erase your chances at stardom (the above-mentioned players beat out Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, and Zack Greinke, respectively). Let's take a look at the field for the awards this season.

American League

American League Hitters
Name	Team	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Mike Trout	Angels	139	639	182	30	129	83	49	0.326	0.963	0.409	10
Yoenis Cespedes	Athletics	129	540	142	23	70	82	16	0.292	0.861	0.368	3.1
American League Pitchers
Name	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Yu Darvish	Rangers	16	9	0	29	29	191.1	10.4	4.19	3.9	3.29	5.1
Jarrod Parker	Athletics	13	8	0	29	29	181.1	6.95	3.13	3.47	3.43	3.7
Tommy Milone	Athletics	13	10	0	31	31	190	6.49	1.71	3.74	3.93	2.7
Ryan Cook	Athletics	6	2	14	71	0	73.1	9.82	3.31	2.09	2.89	1.6
Tom Wilhelmsen	Mariners	4	3	29	73	0	79.1	9.87	3.29	2.5	2.89	1.5

 The American League side of the ballot isn't really up for discussion. Mike Trout's rookie campaign was historic. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, it is the greatest rookie season since Joe Jackson's first full season in 1911. Trout was called up twenty games into the season and led a star-studded Angels team to an 89-73 record, greatly outplaying teammates who made far more money than he did. The Angels had a .583 winning percentage with Mike Trout in the game and a .348 winning percentage without. If Mike Trout had been on the opening day lineup and not missed the first twenty games, the Angels would have potentially won 94 games and made the playoffs.

Prediction: Mike Trout

National League
 

National League Hitters
Name	Team	G	PA	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	OPS	wOBA	WAR
Bryce Harper	Nationals	139	597	144	22	98	59	18	0.270	0.817	0.352	4.9
Norichika Aoki	Brewers	151	588	150	10	81	50	30	0.288	0.788	0.344	2.9
Todd Frazier	Reds	128	465	115	19	55	67	3	0.273	0.829	0.354	2.8
Zack Cozart	Reds	138	600	138	15	72	35	4	0.246	0.687	0.298	2.7
Yonder Alonso	Padres	155	619	150	9	47	62	3	0.273	0.741	0.323	2
Anthony Rizzo	Cubs	87	368	96	15	44	48	3	0.285	0.805	0.349	1.8
Wilin Rosario	Rockies	117	426	107	28	67	71	4	0.270	0.842	0.356	1.8
National League Pitchers
Name	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR
Wade Miley	Diamondbacks	16	11	0	32	29	194.2	6.66	1.71	3.33	3.15	4.8
Mike Fiers	Brewers	9	10	0	23	22	127.2	9.52	2.54	3.74	3.09	3
Lance Lynn	Cardinals	18	7	0	35	29	176	9.2	3.27	3.78	3.49	2.9

 The National League is a little bit trickier as there isn't a slam dunk pick like Trout. The easy pick is breakout star Bryce Harper, but looking at his stats next to Wilin Rosario's really paints a picture. The two players peripheral stats are just about even, with Rosario actually leading the way in OPS and wOBA. The difference in counting stats is worth looking at, though, as Rosario's stats are equal or greater than Harper's despite having 171 less plate appearances. Without Harper's defensive abilities in center field, nothing distinguishes the two. This isn't an argument for Wilin Rosario as the winner, but it takes a bit of the shine off of Harper.

My choice for the award would be Diamondbacks hurler Wade Miley. He had a great season starting for the Snakes thanks to his control and ground ball pitching. Pitchers of his repertoire are hard to project over a career, so I can't say with certainty whether he will go on to have a stellar resume or if he will be the next Jason Jennings, but in 2012 he was the best.

Prediction: Wade Miley
 

Manager of the Year Predictions

The idea behind the Manager of the Year award shifts greatly depending on the stories of each particular season. Sometimes, the award goes to a division winner. Other times, it can go to a team that may not have won, but showed a drastic improvement over the last season. I have taken both of these ideas and used a nerdy formula to determine the Manager of the Year in each league.

The Math

My formula isn't really very scientific at all. The team's wins are added to wins added over last season. Losses are subtracted. Twenty points are awarded for a division crown and ten for a wild card. Because a team's payroll can have a major affect on a manager's available weapons, I factored that in as well. I took a team's total payroll and divided by its wins to determine how much each team spent on a victory. The average amount spent on a victory was $1,250,735. I divided the average by the actual amount spent on a victory to get a normalized number. These numbers were all added to create a total.

American League
 

Manager	Team	2012W	2012L	2011W	DivW	WCWin	Payroll	Cost/Win	WinNorm	Total
Bob Melvin	Oakland	94	68	74	1		52873000	562479	2.224	88.24
Buck Showalter	Baltimore	93	69	69		1	84102333	904326	1.383	71.83
Joe Girardi	New York	95	67	97	1		209792900	2208346	0.566	51.66
Ron Washington	Texas	93	69	96		1	120836000	1299312	0.963	40.63
Jim Leyland	Detroit	88	74	95	1		133475000	1516761	0.825	35.25
Joe Maddon	Tampa	90	72	91			63627200	706969	1.769	34.69
Mike Scioscia	Los Angeles	89	73	86			151381000	1700910	0.735	26.35
Robin Ventura	Chicago	85	77	79			97669500	1149053	1.088	24.88
Eric Wedge	Seattle	75	87	67			84928100	1132375	1.105	7.05
Ned Yost	Kansas City	72	90	71			64001725	888913	1.407	-2.93
John Farrell	Toronto	73	89	81			83739200	1147112	1.090	-13.10
Ron Gardenhire	Minnesota	66	96	63			100435000	1521742	0.822	-18.78
Manny Acta	Cleveland	68	94	80			65430300	962210	1.300	-25.00
Bobby Valentine	Boston	69	93	90			175249119	2539842	0.492	-40.08

It's hard to argue with a formula that determines that Bobby Valentine was the league's worst manager.

Melvin and Showalter are the clear front-runners in the American League. Showalter took a last place team and completely flipped their record from 69-93 to 93-69 this season. They came very close to upsetting the Yankees for the division title and almost knocked them out of the playoffs. In a division where the Blue Jays and Rays have seen recent surges, it will be interesting if the Orioles can have a repeat season or if this was a fluke.

The winner of Manager of the Year, though, has to be Bob Melvin. Melvin's Athletics were in the same division as the two-time defending American League Champion Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Both team spent a lot of money in the offseason and had much better rosters than Oakland on paper. Melvin got a lot of results from his young team that is very sustainable due to the bulk of the production coming from a young and talented pitching staff.

Prediction: Bob Melvin

National League

Manager	Team	2012W	2012L	2011W	DivW	WCWin	Payroll	Cost/Win	WinNorm	Total
Davey Johnson	Washington	98	64	80	1		92534929	944234	1.325	85.25
Dusty Baker	Cincinnati	97	65	79	1		87826167	905424	1.381	83.81
Bruce Bochy	San Francisco	94	68	86	1		131355298	1397397	0.895	62.95
Fredi Gonzalez	Atlanta	94	68	89		1	93529667	994996	1.257	53.57
Mike Matheny	St Louis	88	74	90		1	111858500	1271119	0.984	31.84
Don Mattingly	Los Angeles	86	76	82			105419833	1225812	1.020	24.20
Clint Hurdle	Pittsburgh	79	83	72			51932333	657371	1.903	22.03
Bud Black	San Diego	76	86	71			55621900	731867	1.709	12.09
Ron Roenicke	Milwaukee	83	79	96			98150833	1182540	1.058	1.58
Kirk Gibson	Arizona	81	81	94			75417833	931084	1.343	0.43
Terry Collins	New York	74	88	77			94508822	1277146	0.979	-7.21
Charlie Manuel	Philadelphia	81	81	102			172093902	2124616	0.589	-15.11
Ozzie Guillen	Miami	69	93	72			101628000	1472870	0.849	-18.51
Jim Tracy	Colorado	64	98	73			81135571	1267743	0.987	-33.13
Brad Mills	Houston	55	107	56			60799000	1105436	1.131	-41.69
Dale Sveum	Chicago	61	101	71			109316000	1792066	0.698	-43.02

 The National League had a clear winner in Davey Johnson. The Nationals have been a sleeper pick for a few seasons now, but their prospects are all finally at peak age. They are fueled by a fantastic young pitching staff and have one of the deepest offenses in the league. Not only did Johnson add eighteen wins over last season and lead his team to the playoffs, but these results should be sustainable thanks to the core of Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, and Michael Morse all being locked up for a few more years.

Prediction: Davey Johnson